There’s a really excellent, largely non-technical analysis in the article LEDs to Outshine Fluorescent Lamps found in the July 2005 issue of Nikkei Electronics Asia Online. The author, Satoshi Okubo, expertly explains the market forces in play in the solid state lighting industry, and gives an excellent glimpse of the developments to come over the next five years or so. There’s also some really superb diagrams to help the reader understand that while we’re very near a tipping point today, there’s a lot of room for improvement in solid state lighting, and it’s not all about price points.
Some great observations that are unique to this article (as far as I know):
- White LED prices have dropped 20% each of the last three years
- White LEDs are 100 times as expensive as fluorescent (in dollars/lumen)
- Packaging improvements learned in the low-output market are translating to the high-output (illumination) market
- Solid State lighting removes barriers to entry for companies interested in entering the lighting industry
Make sure you click the diagrams to get big versions, they are very informative.